Commercial aircraft fleet estimated to grow by 28%

• The Commercial aircraft fleet is expected to grow from 28,400 vehicles to 36,400 over the next decade.
• The industry has returned to its peak levels, matching the ones from the pre-covid19 era.
• The Middle East fleet is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.2% over the next decade.

A new report by consulting firm Oliver Wyman reveals that the commercial aviation fleet is expected to grow by 28% in the next decade, from 28,400 to 36,400 aircraft by 2034.

The Middle East region will see an even more significant increase of 51% from 1,472 to 2,227 planes.

However, COVID-19 has had a lasting impact on the industry, wiping out six years of growth, and the fleet is expected to reach 39,000 planes by 2036.

According to Anthony DiNota, Vice President of Oliver Wyman’s CAVOK, the industry is finally out of recovery mode and on a growth trajectory.

The report also suggests that the Middle East will gain a larger share of the global fleet, due to factors such as its central location, strong established players in the market, and the addition of new players.

The region’s economic diversification plans will also play a significant role in fueling the growth of the aviation industry.

The report further predicts that the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector will grow by almost 3% in 2024, reaching $104 billion.

It is expected to expand by an average of 1.8% annually The forecast has revealed some key findings regarding the aviation industry worldwide.

Firstly, the industry has now matched its pre-COVID peak globally, but growth moving forward will be slower.

The fleet is expected to expand at a rate of 2.5% annually, compared to the 2.9% projected in the previous forecast.

Narrowbodies will see a steady increase in their share of the fleet, rising from 61% in 2024 to 63% in 2034. The growth is driven by the resurgence of domestic air travel worldwide, which is projected to surpass the pre-COVID peak.

Secondly, the Middle East fleet is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4.2% from 2024 to 2034, outstripping growth rates in most parts of the world, including Africa (2.3%), Latin America (1.9%), North America (1.8%), and Western Europe (1.0%). Narrowbodies will be the primary driver of this growth.

In this region, narrowbodies will climb from 40% to 47% of the fleet over the decade, while widebodies will decrease from 56% to 50%.

Thirdly, India will overtake China as the industry’s growth leader for the first time ever, with the Indian fleet expected to expand almost 13% over the first five years of the forecast period and nearly 10% for the entire 10 years. Currently at about 600 planes, the Indian fleet will be 2.5 times the size it is today by 2034.

Lastly, the aviation’s global aftermarket, known as MRO, keeps aircraft flying. The overall MRO market in the Middle East is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3% (vs. 1.8% globally) from 2023 to 2034 and will be driven by local capabilities development to capture value leakage. It is slated to be worth nearly $16 billion by 2034 (vs. $124 billion globally).ion globally).